Grammy Predictions 2022: Best Music Video, Music Movie

This year’s nominees for Best Music Video and Best Musical Feature are interesting to say the least. With the elimination of the nominating committees, this year’s nominations really reflect what the members of the recording academy loved and wanted to honor, but who will they want to honor the most?

BEST MUSIC VIDEO

At first glance, this award should be an easy win for Lil nas x‘s “Montero (Call me by your name)”. The video for the song is by far the most discussed and beloved of the year for its bold statement on homosexuality and religion. The video has also already won its fair share of awards, including three VMAs (including Video of the Year and Best Director), AMA for Favorite Music Video and EMA for Best Video. Plus, the song itself was a huge hit, finishing ninth on Billboard’s Year-End Hot 100 chart and racking up over a billion Spotify streams in less than a year. And of course Lil Nas X is a previous category winner here, winning that award a few years ago for “Old Town Road”.

However, the nominations for Best Music Video this year looked a lot like the Record of the Year, with six of the seven nominated artists also competing for ROTY. Add to that the fact that the Grammys seem to like sweeps lately, and you could see a potential upset from whoever wins the year’s record, with Billie Eilish, Olivia rodrigo, and Tony bennett and Lady Gaga all with credible cases. Of those, I’d say Rodrigo might be the most likely to surprise, given how massive “Good 4 U” was (it was Billboard’s fifth biggest song of the year).

Will win: Lil Nas X, “MONTERO (Call me by your name)”
Upset most likely: Olivia Rodrigo, “Good 4 U”
Black horse possible: Billie Eilish, “Happier than ever”

Best Musical Film

This is a delicate question. Two highly acclaimed films will fight for victory here: Questlove‘s “Summer of Soul” and Bo burnham‘s “Inside”. You could advocate for one or the other to win. “Summer of Soul” might connect more with musicians as it is a gripping documentary honoring legendary black music and a festival that has since become iconic. The film has so far been everywhere this awards season, sweeping the Critics Choice Documentary Awards and earning nominations from the Cinema Eye Honors and the International Documentary Association. Additionally, Questlove is a former Grammy winner.

However, “Inside” was undoubtedly a highlight in 2021, a musical special that also went on to become one of the most acclaimed films of the year and won Burnham three Emmy Awards. His approach to hot topics like mental health and containment could also really strike a chord with voters. And her nomination for Best Visual Multimedia Song for “All Eyes on Me” might indicate some support from other branches.

I will go with “Summer of Soul” because it will get even more hyped through the Grammy vote due to its concurrent Oscar campaign. It might also be more in line with previous documentaries that have already won here, while Burnham’s more comedic approach is less typical of winners in this category. If neither wins I think Billie Eilish“Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles” is next in line; she could easily win here if she had to sweep… again.

Will win: “Summer of Soul (… Or, when the revolution couldn’t be televised)”
Upset most likely: “Inside”
Black horse possible: “Happier than ever: a love letter to Los Angeles”

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